Ultra-Processed Foods and Diabetes Risk: What to Know

What are ultra-processed foods?

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are industrial formulations made from multiple ingredients and manufacturing steps. They often include additives, emulsifiers, stabilizers and ingredients you wouldn’t normally find in a home kitchen. Researchers commonly use the NOVA classification to identify UPFs while federal agencies work toward an official definition.

Key research findings

• UPFs dominate the food supply: Analyses estimate that roughly 70% of foods in the U.S. supply chain are ultra-processed, making UPFs a major part of many people’s diets.

• Higher UPF intake and prediabetes in young adults: Longitudinal research following late teens and young adults found that greater consumption of UPFs was linked to a higher risk of developing prediabetes over several years, suggesting limiting UPFs may help prevent progression to type 2 diabetes.

• Sugary drinks and cardiometabolic harms: Large analyses attribute substantial numbers of deaths from type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease to sugar-sweetened beverages. Registered dietitians note these drinks offer little nutritional benefit and recommend alternatives that reduce sugar while adding potential advantages like probiotics or polyphenols.

• Processed and red meat associations: Studies report that daily intake of modest amounts of processed meat (about two slices of ham, ~50 g) is associated with an elevated 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes (around a 15% increase), and daily unprocessed red meat around 100 g (a small steak) is associated with a smaller but measurable increased risk (around 10%). Potential mechanisms include harmful compounds formed during cooking and other components of processed meats. These are associations, so moderation is advised.

• Degree of processing matters: Research shows that as the share of UPFs in the diet rises, so does diabetes risk. One analysis found that for every 10% increase in UPFs’ share of the diet, the risk of type 2 diabetes increased substantially (about 17% in that study). Categories tied to higher risk include artificially sweetened beverages, savory snacks, ready meals, and processed animal products.

Practical swaps and tips

• Replace sugary drinks with water, unsweetened tea, sparkling water, or fermented beverages like kombucha for lower sugar and potential probiotic or polyphenol benefits.
• Swap candy and packaged sweets for whole fruit, a handful of nuts, or plain yogurt topped with fresh fruit and a drizzle of honey instead of heavily sweetened yogurts.
• Favor plant-based proteins (beans, lentils, tofu) and oily fish (salmon, mackerel, sardines) over frequent servings of processed or large amounts of red meat.
• Cook more meals from basic whole ingredients to reduce reliance on UPFs and increase fiber and nutrient density.
• Make gradual, sustainable changes—small swaps are easier to maintain and can improve weight management, blood-sugar stability, and insulin sensitivity over time.

Bottom line

A growing body of evidence links high intake of ultra-processed foods, sugar-sweetened drinks, and frequent processed or red-meat consumption with higher risks of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Reducing UPFs through simple, realistic swaps and more whole-food cooking can lower risk and improve overall nutrition.