The NHS is preparing for an unusually large flu surge this winter, with officials warning there is “no peak in sight yet.” England’s national medical director for urgent and emergency care says infections are at record levels for this time of year and likely to rise further.
Recent figures show an average of 1,717 patients a day were occupying hospital beds due to flu last week — the highest number recorded for this point in the season. That compares with 160 patients in the same week of 2023 (a tenfold increase) and 1,098 patients the same week last year (more than 50% higher).
Rising flu cases are set to coincide with planned industrial action by junior doctors. The BMA has scheduled strikes at a time the NHS says will cause maximum disruption, potentially adding strain and anxiety for patients and families through the run-up to Christmas. NHS leaders, however, say preparations will continue and that the strikes will not derail planning.
Vaccination and other preparations
So far this winter the NHS has delivered almost 17 million flu vaccinations (16,905,349), roughly 350,000 more than at the same point last year. Officials point to other signs that earlier planning is helping: ambulances handed over 99,000 patients to hospitals last week, about 4,500 more than the same week last year, but ambulance handover times were nearly 10 minutes faster than last year.
The first weekly tracking reports of winter pressures also show demand is up across services. NHS 111 received 11,338 more calls than the same week last year.
Expanding access to care
Health leaders highlight an expanded range of ways to get care this winter. Community pharmacies can now offer quick treatment for common conditions — and in some cases supply prescription-only medicines — for problems such as sore throat, sinusitis and earache. Nearly all GP practices (98.7%) now accept online consultation requests; around 8 million people used online GP services in October. Additional urgent treatment centres are opening across England to treat a wide range of illnesses and injuries.
Guidance to the public
Prof Julian Redhead, the national medical director for urgent and emergency care, said the high levels of flu and the potential overlap with strike action could stretch staff close to breaking point despite earlier preparations. He urged people with non-life-threatening problems to use NHS 111 or 111 online, which can direct patients to the most appropriate place for care. He reiterated that A&E and 999 should be used only for life-threatening conditions and serious injuries, and encouraged anyone eligible to get a flu jab in the weeks remaining before Christmas to maximise immunity.
Government response
Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting said acting earlier than in previous years has produced improvements, such as faster ambulance response and handover times, but warned that timing of the planned industrial action risks undermining that progress. He said the government will use planning, investment and modernisation to aim for a more resilient NHS this winter and beyond.
What this means for patients
– If you have flu symptoms or a minor illness, consider visiting a community pharmacy, using NHS 111 or booking an online GP consultation rather than attending A&E.
– People eligible for the flu vaccine are encouraged to come forward to improve protection ahead of the busiest weeks.
– For life-threatening emergencies, continue to use A&E and call 999.
The NHS says it is working to manage rising demand and maintain services, but warns the coming weeks will be challenging as flu cases climb and industrial action is set to take place.
