Research indicates ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are a dominant part of the U.S. food supply and are linked to higher risks for prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Here are the main findings and practical swaps.
What are ultra-processed foods?
– UPFs are formulations of ingredients mainly for industrial use, produced by multiple industrial techniques. They often contain additives, emulsifiers, stabilizers, and ingredients not typically found in a home kitchen.
– The Food and Drug Administration and USDA are working on an official definition, but many experts use the NOVA classification.
Key findings from recent studies
1) UPF prevalence and young-adult risk
– A 2023 Nature Communications analysis estimated about 70% of the U.S. food supply chain consists of ultra-processed foods.
– A November 2025 Nutrition & Metabolism (BMC) study of 85 young adults (ages 17–22) followed over four years found higher UPF intake was associated with greater risk of prediabetes. Study author Yiping Li said limiting UPF consumption can help prevent prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.
2) Sugary drinks and cardiometabolic deaths
– A January 2025 Nature Medicine study linked sugar-sweetened beverages (like soda) to substantial metabolic and cardiovascular harms, estimating roughly 80,278 deaths from type 2 diabetes and 257,962 deaths from cardiovascular disease attributable to sugary drinks.
– Registered dietitians note there’s little benefit to sugary drinks and recommend swaps that lower sugar intake while offering additional benefits (for example, beverages with probiotics or polyphenols).
3) Processed and red meat links to diabetes
– A September 2024 Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology analysis found daily intake of about 50 g of processed meat (≈2 slices of ham) was associated with a 15% higher 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Eating 100 g of unprocessed red meat daily (≈a small steak) was associated with a 10% increased risk.
– Potential mechanisms include cooking byproducts (like advanced glycation end products) and other components of processed meats. Experts caution association doesn’t prove causation but advise moderation.
4) Degree of processing and diabetes risk
– A November 2024 Lancet Regional Health: Europe study reported that each 10% increase in the proportion of UPFs in the diet corresponded with a 17% higher risk of type 2 diabetes.
– UPF categories showing the highest risk included artificially sweetened beverages, savory snacks, ready meals, and animal-based processed products (processed meats).
Practical swaps and tips
– Replace sugary drinks with water, unsweetened tea, sparkling water, or fermented options like kombucha for potential probiotic and polyphenol benefits.
– Swap sugary snacks for whole fruit, nuts, or plain yogurt topped with fruit and a touch of honey instead of sweetened yogurt.
– Choose plant-based proteins and oily fish (salmon, mackerel, sardines) over processed and frequent red-meat consumption.
– Cook more meals from scratch to limit UPF intake and increase fiber, nutrients, and whole-food ingredients.
– Make small, sustainable swaps—gradual changes help with weight management, stabilizing blood sugar, and improving insulin sensitivity.
Bottom line
A growing body of research links higher consumption of ultra-processed foods, sugary drinks, and processed red meats to increased risk of prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Reducing UPFs—through simple swaps and more whole-food cooking—can lower risk and improve overall nutrition.
